In our experience, we see innovations and market transitions going through a common lifecycle.
Currently, cloud computing is in the hype phase of its lifecycle, where:
1a. The label “cloud computing”, because of its cachet, gets applied to activities and products that really have little or nothing to do with cloud computing. Individuals and companies feel significant pressure to label their activity or product inappropriately as cloud computing simply to be considered as in the know and not out of the mainstream. This tends to create a lot of noise that can overwhelm thoughtful and appropriate dialog and also makes it hard to determine what is or is not part of the cloud.
1b. Since the definition of “cloud computing” is in flux, all sorts of web-based services and applications that kind of look like something as a service (?aaS) get grandfathered in to “cloud computing”. This makes it hard to determine what does or does not get grandfathered.
2. The expectations for cloud computing become overblown. It is promoted as solving all problems. It becomes the next massive opportunity for creating new markets with off-scale optimistic revenue potential. It will render all other products and technologies obsolete.
3. Herd behavior emerges around cloud computing. It becomes hot (or cool) to hang out and be associated with cloud computing. Cliques form around particular approaches. This in and of itself is not problematic, but the herding behavior can tend to amplify the hype and further distort the discourse.
We are mindful of all of this, and have suffered through the hype phases while working on past innovations. As long as you realize that there can be a lot of hype, then you can proceed accordingly. We know that after the hype phase, the next phase is generally a crash, a letdown, where everyone begins to realize that expectations really were overblown, that it is harder to do than originally stated, that it doesn’t solve all problems, and that it creates some problems of its own. Then, the innovation begins to lose some of its cachet; however, work on the innovation can continue with less noise and sometimes more clarity.
At this time, it is unclear when the industry will enter into the crash phase of the cloud computing lifecycle and how substantive of a crash it will be. There already are early rumblings. The crash phase gives people the opportunity to build a solid foundation and to move a viable innovation forward.
To give an indication of the growth in interest in cloud computing, the following chart contrasts U.S. search trends on Google for the terms cloud computing, Internet video, and CDN. The graph lines show weekly search volume for each term relative to the overall average of search for CDN. The rapid growth and volatility of search for cloud computing are apparent.
